MCT’s August Lock Volume Indices reveal a 6.06% month-over-month drop in July mortgage lock activity, driven by volatile conditions tied to weak employment figures, increasing interest rates, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve.
The absence of clear direction [from the Fed] is creating additional market noise. People are interpreting economic reports to guess the Fed’s next step, which is fueling much of the instability.”— Andrew Rhodes, Head of Trading at MCTSAN DIEGO, CA, UNITED STATES, August 11, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — Mortgage Capital Trading, Inc. (MCT®), the recognized frontrunner in cutting-edge mortgage capital markets technology, has unveiled its August Lock Volume Indices, which detail lock volume figures for July.
Total lock volume fell 6.06% from June to July, with purchase locks dropping 6.08%, rate/term refinances declining 9.55%, and cash-out refinances slipping 3.66%.
This downturn occurred as 30-year mortgage rates climbed to their highest point in over a year, prolonging a slump that started in June.
Attention has increasingly focused on the Federal Reserve, which kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in July. By August 7, financial markets had priced in roughly a 42% likelihood of a rate increase in September. Just one day earlier, on August 6, that probability stood at 55%.
Andrew Rhodes, Head of Trading at MCT, attributed the change to a less communicative approach under the Fed’s new leadership. “The lack of forward guidance is causing more noise in the market,” he remarked. “People are inferring the Fed’s next move from the data themselves, and that’s a big reason for the market volatility.”
The August 7 jobs report also came in surprisingly weak, showing a loss of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls versus expectations of an approximate 80,000 increase, with May and June totals revised downward by a combined 103,000. Rhodes described this as a potential new economic paradigm shift, which he has termed “Slackflation.”
According to his analysis, such a shift could combine strong growth driven by AI productivity gains, elevated inflation stemming from strained energy markets, and rising unemployment caused by AI-related labor displacement—a scenario distinct from classic stagflation, where high unemployment and high inflation occur without robust growth.
“Purchase production is still driving the overall average, as steady growth in the economy continues to help support the purchase market,” Rhodes said.
That purchase strength is where MCT’s new Live Rate Lock Index offers additional clarity through a daily weighted-average measure of locked note rates by loan purpose. “We’re updating the Rate Lock Index incrementally every day, sourced through a diverse set of lenders nationwide, so it reflects where the market actually is,” said Rhodes.
In July, note rates varied from 6.64% on purchase loans to 6.98% on cash-out loans, with builder locks near 5.62% versus 6.78% for non-builders. Rhodes highlighted the builder gap as evidence of homebuilders’ advantage in a purchase-driven market, noting: “You can see how advantageous it is for that type of lender.”
MCT remains dedicated to providing expert guidance and data-driven insights.
MCT's Lock Volume Indices offer a summary of rate lock volume activity in the residential mortgage industry, broken down by lock type (purchase, rate/term refinance, and cash-out refinance) across a wide variety of lenders (e.g., sizes, products/services offered, business models) from MCT's national network.
Ian Miller
Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT)
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